From The
New York Times:
Everybody's
Business
Worried About Noisy Children, and Hedge Funds, Too
By BEN STEIN
Published:
April 23, 2006
FOR my sins, I travel constantly. I enjoy it most of the time,
except for going through security lines, which is always hell.
But I have come to notice a few new travel horrors that I feel
duty-bound to share.
First, because
of the spread of mass prosperity or the accumulation of frequent-flier
miles, more and more families with small children are flying in
first class. (Don't bother writing to tell me that I am a bad
person because I like to fly in first class. I have done my time
in coach.) These small children often cry, to their parents' indifference,
or, if the children are a bit older, have to be read to and played
with at loud volume for five or six hours at a time. Nicht gut.
Second, and
again because of the mass prosperity of Bush America (and don't
bother telling me I am a creep because I like President Bush and
think he's done a great job with the economy we do have
a great economy, after all), there seem to be renovations in progress
at every hotel where I stay. For reasons of sheer idiocy, construction
seems to start at daybreak. This is insanely inconsiderate to
us as guests, and I recommend long prison sentences for anyone
involved.
Anyway, as
I say, I travel a lot and I keep seeing men and women who are
plumb worn out from hard work, early-morning flights, long days
on the road and the burden of the BlackBerry, which, though it
weighs just a few ounces, is as heavy as a cinder block in terms
of how much it burdens its owner with responsibility while on
the road. It endlessly occurs to me that I hope the teenage children
of these men and women appreciate how hard their parents struggle
to keep them in BMW's and whale belts. To me, traveling business
executives are among the least-appreciated specimens on the planet,
mostly by their own families. I just want you to know, Mr. and
Ms. Traveler, that while the airlines don't care if you live or
die (and neither does your teenager), I feel your pain. You see,
I have a teenage son. ...
Well, this
is all a digression. What I really wanted to say was that hedge
funds are largely, but not always, a snare and a delusion. Hedge
funds so called originally because they can hedge, or sell
short started like gangbusters in the 1960's, died off,
then came back with a rush when the tech bubble burst. They came
back because they could make money by selling the technology stocks
as they collapsed. In those days of ashes for Silicon Valley,
hedge funds manufactured money.
But the long-term
record of most hedge funds is not at all impressive. Research
by Burton G. Malkiel, a professor at Princeton, and Atanu Saha,
a principal at the Analysis Group, found that over long periods
hedge funds significantly underperform index funds, like those
based on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.
For openers,
the hedge funds they looked at starting with 604 in 1996
and rising to 2,700 in 2003 as the funds proliferated earned
less than an S.& P. index fund in the period he studied, 1996
to 2003: an annual average return of 9.3 percent, compared with
9.4 percent for the index fund (and 10.1 percent for a simple
stock-and-bond portfolio). But hedge funds also create much more
tax liability because they trade so often and have so much short-term
taxable income, compared with a tax-efficient index fund. And,
as is well documented, they have far higher fees than index funds.
It is easy
to buy an index fund that charges a management fee of only about
20 basis points two-tenths of a percentage point
of the amount invested. A hedge fund takes an astounding fee of
one to two full percentage points of net assets off the top, and
then 20 percent of any profits. This cuts hedge fund returns to
significantly less than those of broad-based index funds.
Dr. Malkiel
and Dr. Saha calculated that even if hedge funds earned almost
50 percent more than market returns, the higher taxes and fees
that hedge funds pay would whittle away their net return to investors
to 20 percent less than index funds.
Other commentators,
including my pal and colleague, Phil DeMuth, say that even these
results overstate hedge fund results. For one thing, there is
survivorship bias always a problem in the back alleys of
finance because only the hedge funds that survive report
at all. If you take into account the ones that fail, the results
would be worse.
Then there
are problems of self-selection, in which only the funds that feel
like it report at all, and instant-history bias, in which hedge
funds that are brand new and have just had one good spurt can
skew all the results. And because many assets of hedge funds are
illiquid, the managers can put any price they want on them for
any period until they sell them (and maybe even after that). This
can be used to greatly underreport volatility because the assets
in question can be reported at any price the managers wish, even
while comparable liquid assets are gyrating wildly.
To be sure,
some hedge funds do well. Some do incredibly well, but rarely
do any of them do incredibly well for a long time. As far as I
can tell, in the past few years, almost none have done as well
as the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, the Dimensional
Fund Advisors' U.S. Micro Cap Portfolio, Dimensional's Emerging
Markets Portfolio or the wildly popular Fidelity Contrafund, all
of which cost almost nothing to invest in although the
Contrafund is being closed to new investors at the end of the
month, and its glory days may have passed in any event).
HEDGE funds,
as Phil DeMuth says, are not necessarily a great investment, but
they are a great compensation program for hedge fund managers.
Warren Buffett, a true god of investments, says much the same
thing eloquently in his most recent annual report for Berkshire
Hathaway. His estimates of how much of America's corporate profits
are sucked out of the system's owners, the shareholders, and diverted
to investment managers is breathtaking and depressing.
So, weary
travelers, worry about bad hotels. Worry about parents who will
not do a thing to quiet noisy children. And worry about the sad
fact that your teenagers probably don't appreciate you. (Have
I mentioned this already? I wonder why.) But don't feel bad if
you're not in a hot hedge fund. Hardly anyone else is, either.