From The
New York Times:
EVERYBODY'S
BUSINESS
Want to Be
a Fairly Good Investor? Follow the Paw Prints
By BEN STEIN
Published:
February 27, 2005
YOUR humble servant grew up as the son of two brilliant economists.
I studied economics at Columbia University under some big names
in economics, including C. Lowell Harriss. When I was in law school
at Yale, I took classes in finance in the graduate school of economics
under geniuses like James Tobin, later a Nobel Prize winner, and
Henry C. Wallich, inventor of the Fed Model for when stocks or
bonds are overpriced. None of these people, however, taught me
to be a great investor.
I have been
a stockholder of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's company,
for more than 20 years, and I have done well with the stock. But
even reading Mr. Buffett's famous annual letters to stockholders
did not teach me to be a great investor.
For a number
of years my screenplay agent was a successful investor named George
Diskant. I have not seen him for years, but I hear that he is
rich. Even he did not teach me to be a great investor.
I also read
Peter L. Bernstein's "Capital Ideas," probably the best
book about investing I have ever read - besides my own, of course,
written with Philip DeMuth. Even that did not make me a great
investor.
I even spent
years writing for Barron's about financial fraud, often with severe
results for the companies I wrote about, and financial salvation
for people who read the articles in time to avoid disaster. Nor
did that make me into a great investor.
The fact is
that I am not a great investor even now, at least in the sense
that I can consistently or even often beat the broad market indexes
in any meaningful way. But here comes the important part: hardly
anyone is a great investor.
If you don't
count a very few hedge fund managers - very, very few - as well
as Mr. Buffett and a tiny handful of other professional investment
managers, the people who can beat the broad market indexes consistently
are like hen's teeth.
But if I follow
a pattern of buying very broad indexes, and then dipping my toe
into various other corners of the market where the action is,
I do well enough to sleep at night, occasionally with a smile
on my face, and I do much better than I did any other way. If
I hit for singles, I do a lot better in the long run than I would
do by swinging for the fences, and so does everyone else - or
almost everyone else.
In fact, that
is the primary lesson of Mr. Bernstein's "Capital Ideas"
and it comes to mind this month for a special reason. I, your
humble servant, am a frequent panelist and guest on television
programs that talk about finance. I happened to be sitting at
Morton's restaurant in Beverly Hills a few days ago with Mr. DeMuth
and with another financial adviser for whom I have high esteem,
Raymond J. Lucia (for whom - full disclosure - I am about to give
a speech or two urging people to save for retirement).
Ray and Phil
said something like this to me: "You know there are not a
lot of shows on TV that actually teach the viewer how to be a
better investor. There is a lot of stock picking and predicting
what can't be predicted, but there is not a lot that tells the
ordinary Joe or Jane how to save for retirement."
Ray and Phil
were right. And they will keep being right.
The basic
advice for being a better investor is so commonplace, and the
rationale for it so complex, that it may not make for great TV
drama to preach it endlessly as if it were an old Anacin commercial.
But if followed over a long period, it is life-changing, so I'll
give it to you now in the shortest imaginable form. Then, when
I feel like it later in the year, I'll go into more detail:
Save consistently,
and save as much as you can. When you save money, you are saving
yourself.
Once you have
a pot - or as Ray calls it, "a bucket" - of liquid assets
to tide you over a few rough months, move into exchange-traded
funds based on broad market benchmarks. These can include the
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index of domestic shares; Morgan
Stanley Capital International indexes like the EAFE, for big companies
in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, or its benchmark index
for emerging markets; broader indexes like the Wilshire 5000,
to capture smaller stocks' returns; or large, very diversified
managed funds like Legg Mason Value Trust or Fidelity Contrafund.
Or invest
in funds similar to these through variable annuities. These annuities
let the returns grow tax-free. But first, check the fees and make
sure you know what the fees mean. Fees for variable annuities
can seem high, but when you know what they are for - certain insurance
and capital preservation features, mainly - they look far more
reasonable. (Again, disclosure: I am honorary chairman of the
National Retirement Planning Coalition, and one of the sponsors,
along with medical and actuarial associations, is the association
of companies that sell variable annuities.)
Leaven these
investments in a very broad bond market index, like the Lehman
Aggregate Bond index, and add some inflation-protected bonds.
When you are young, you need have very little of this. When you
grow older, you should have an ever-larger percentage of your
savings in these assets, which tend to fluctuate less than stocks.
This preserves your capital as you become less able to replenish
losses.
Add to these
investments consistently, and with as much money as you can. To
paraphrase an old charitable solicitation, "Save till it
hurts."
Unless it's
the most dire of emergencies, don't withdraw these savings and
spend them. Let compound interest work for you by leaving your
money invested.
Do not try
to beat the markets by speculating on commodities or high-tech
stocks. An exception may be commodities embedded in broad-based
funds like the iShares Goldman Sachs Natural Resources Index.
But never bet on an individual high-tech stock you may have heard
touted by someone at your health club. When the siren song starts
to waft toward you, lash yourself to the mast of broad-market
investing.
Buy a German
shorthaired pointer or, better yet, rescue one. That's the breed
that won the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show this year. I have
owned them, or they have owned me, for 23 years, and they are
the best investments I have ever made.
These investing
ideas are basic. They will not make you a George Soros or a Jim
Rogers. But they will keep you from throwing yourself off a tall
building in bad times. They will, over time, make you a lot of
money, too, even though they seem like little, cautious steps.
Think small and you will grow big, money wise. And don't forget
the hound.