From The
New York Times:
EVERYBODY'S
BUSINESS
May Your Portfolio
Have a Pleasant Afterlife
By BEN STEIN
Published:
January 2, 2005
A WHILE ago, I felt desperately sick. Not ill. Sick. But really
bad. I thought I was dying. Naturally, I made my peace with my
maker as best I could, looked longingly at my dogs and wife and
then prepared for eternity. As I writhed and moaned, a sudden
thought hit me that had hit me before: How will my lovely wife
and strong teenage son know how to invest my estate so as to have
enough money to live on?
That is, they
live at a very high level now. But my estate is not so large that
they can just put the money into C.D.'s paying 2.5 percent and
live at anything like the level they are accustomed to. (My wife
was a lawyer for many years but stopped practicing some time ago
and has absolutely no desire to go back into the labor force.
"I'd rather be dead" is the way she put it when the
subject last came up.)
So how would
they invest the money so they could live decently until they joined
me in eternity?
Luckily, my
sickness was just a really bad stomach flu that passed within
a day, an agonizing day. But the question lingered in my febrile
brain: What is a good income portfolio for a woman of 57 and her
teenage son who like living high off the hog?
Of course,
they could go with a portfolio of junk bonds. Although some people
have good experiences with junk bonds, I have had very bad ones.
Or they could go with fixed annuities, but those pay a fairly
small interest rate these days, and when my wife passed into immortality,
the principal would be gone, thus keeping my son from opening
the Auto Speed Shop he's interested in.
So, what I
want is a portfolio that pays a good dividend, has a chance of
keeping up with inflation and may have some money left over when
both Mr. and Mrs. Stein are gone.
Naturally,
I consulted Philip DeMuth, my investment adviser pal who is founder
and principal of Conservative Wealth Management (and sometime
co-author with me of books on political economy and finance).
We put our heads together over a lavish lunch at Morton's in Beverly
Hills, and this is what we came up with:
To get the
highest possible current income, 25 percent of the portfolio would
go into the Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty fund, a leveraged
real estate investment trust fund of funds that currently yields
8.32 percent. It achieves that extraordinary rate by investing
in a large number of high-yielding real estate investment trusts
and by borrowing money to invest still more.
The fund has
also had a spectacular capital gain in the last two years - climbing
by more than 50 percent - but its vulnerability to changes in
interest rates makes it unusually volatile. If interest rates
shot up, the spread between the borrowed funds and the yield on
a REIT's payouts would eventually shrink and could even become
negative, at which point the fund's share price and possibly its
yield would fall. That happened in April, when REIT's - and leveraged
REIT's in particular - took a major swan dive on fears of higher
interest rates, though they recovered quickly.
The fund's
managers say they have hedged against interest rate changes for
at least four years, but four years is not a long time, and the
fund, while a super payer, is not for the faint of heart. Still,
its yield is so high that it bears some weight in my proposed
portfolio.
I would put
another 25 percent in the Alpine Dynamic Dividend fund. This is
a stock fund that owns high-dividend stocks, so it pays high dividends.
But its managers add another fillip: they buy stocks of companies
that have notified the markets of special large dividends, then
hold them more than 60 days for tax purposes.
This fund
currently yields 7.65 percent. It has the possibility of appreciation
(I hope) as its underlying stocks go up. Investing in this type
of fund may become a major trend as the streams of baby boomers
reaching retirement demand higher-dividend stocks. The market
may well shift from one that emphasizes capital gains to one that
promises income, especially current income. And if it does, these
funds - and a great many roughly similar to them - will benefit.
Inflation
is a nasty beast. It is currently tamed. But the past teaches
us that it doesn't stay in its cave for long. If it bursts forth,
stocks and bonds could take a wicked spill.
The Treasury
thoughtfully offers TIPS, for Treasury inflation-protected securities.
These are United States Treasury bonds that add to the holder's
principal a percentage of the par amount equal to the increase
in that year's Consumer Price Index.
These have
been a gold mine in recent years. Lately, their yield has lagged
behind that of some other funds, but for the widow with a realistic
fear of inflation, they are a must for another quarter of the
portfolio.
They can also
be bought in mutual funds offered by giants like Fidelity and
Vanguard. Currently, they yield about 4.5 percent, and that could
fall if inflation slows. But if inflation roars, your widow or
widower - and orphans, too - will be glad that you thought to
recommend TIPS. Beware: you pay tax on the increase in the bonds'
principal even if you don't get it right away.
Finally, our
pals at Templeton (actually, I have never met them) offer the
Templeton Emerging Markets Income fund. It invests in the bonds
of countries like Russia, Brazil and South Korea.
In terms of
price fluctuations, these bonds - and the fund's price - are like
Mr. Toad's Wild Ride. But the fund's yield is fairly stable, and
is now hovering at about 7.3 percent. This is also a play on the
declining dollar, because many of the bonds pay in local currencies.
Some countries
represented in the Templeton fund export minerals, though not
all. If the natural resources sector continues to be strong and
the dollar continues to fall, the fund should not only be secure
but also a source of growth in price and possibly in yield.
THE combined
yield of these investments approaches 7 percent. That means they
should throw off enough cash so that the beneficiaries can invest
some, maybe in exchange-traded funds like Diamonds, which track
the Dow Jones industrial average, or Spiders, which track the
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Or the combined yield may
allow enough income for the Ladies Who Lunch or the Men Who Golf
to enjoy their days and nights.
I don't claim
for a minute that this is a conservative portfolio, despite its
provenance. For people who can live more frugally, there are other,
far more conservative and maybe more sensible choices. For people
who are subject to tax at very high rates ... oh, wait, there
aren't any more of those under President Bush.
Still, for
those who want lots of income and and are willing to take some
risks, this is a high-income portfolio that might make sense for
now. What about me? My stomach is feeling better, so I may revise
this plan later.
But if someone
reads about my demise, he might bring up this plan with my widow.
She doesn't bother to read about sordid money matters, so she
won't know about it unless someone tells her.