From Barron's
07/10/2006:
One
for the Money
by
BEN STEIN
ENVY PLAYS
A BIG PART IN MY LIFE -- OR AT least it used to. When I was a
child, I mostly envied rock singers and, especially, rockabilly
singers. They looked so cool up there on stage, with their twangy
guitars and d.a. haircuts, and they drove lowered Mercury cars.
Some performers, like Jerry Lee Lewis or Elvis, were both rock
and rockabilly stars. All of the great-looking girls screamed
for them. They had fabulous Southern accents.
Now, the kind
of guys I used to envy -- I don't envy anyone anymore because
I have given up that vice -- run successful hedge funds. For performance
that often barely beats -- if that -- high-performing no-load
mutual funds, S&P indexes and other benchmarks, they get paid
"two and twenty" and walk away with yachts, helicopters,
custom-made saddles for their horses and custom-made suits.
Now, probably
the single smartest financial aphorism I have ever heard comes
from a brilliant financial manager named Ray Lucia. Ray happens
to be both a financial whiz and a rock singer. His advice is straightforward:
Humans have to match assets and liabilities. For most of us, our
prime liability is funding our retirement. Ray works on doing
that for his clients and does it well. But I don't think even
he can save me from my lavish lifestyle. So, because I want to
be able to fund my retirement, and since the rockabilly thing
didn't work out, I thought of becoming a hedge-fund manager.
THE PROBLEM
IS THAT I AM FAR TOO TIMID to handle anyone's money but mine.
If I had a bad month and a widow called me in tears, I would probably
leave the country or jump off a tall building. So, I won't be
a hedge-fund manager. But if I did become one, or if I tried a
very closely related daredevil act and started a mutual fund,
I have an idea of what I would do.
It's incredibly
simple and borrows from Bernie Cornfeld's idea of a fund of funds,
except that it would be legitimate and its expenses (even after
I took a cut for my services and for my dogs' needs) would be
extremely low. The idea, which I am working on with my pal financial
manager Phil DeMuth and with Ray ( neither of whom pays me), is
a mutual fund made up of exchange-traded funds and index funds.
The index funds would focus on the investment sectors that we
think will be strong for the next 20 years.
Our holdings
would include the DFA Emerging Markets Portfolio (ticker: DFEMX),
a sector fund, as well as the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index
(EEM), an ETF. (The big difference between them is that the DFA
fund excludes Russia as too risky.) For the stock market's small
and micro-cap groups, which have shown themselves to be so wildly
better than the Dow for long periods, we would use the DFA U.S.
Micro Cap Portfolio (DFSCX) or the Russell 2000 Value Index. For
commodities, especially energy commodities, the ETFs that we would
select would be the Energy Select Spider (XLE) or Goldman Sachs'
heavily energy- weighted iShares GS Natural Resources (IGE). For
larger companies in Europe, Australasia, and the Far East, we
would simply use the iShares MSCI EAFE Fund ( EFA).
For the overall
U.S. market, we would use a capitalization-weighted index fund
like the Vanguard VTI. And because the utility sector has been
very very good to me, I would include an energy index, too, like
the XLU.
SELLING SHORT
SCARES ME. Plus, I believe firmly that we shouldn't short America.
So, to hedge, we would hold cash, which is now paying a lush yield
after a long time in the desert. It has zero chance of losing
value, except to inflation, and today is yielding about twice
as much as the Dow industrials.
To get income
beyond the dividends offered by our overseas, emerging-market
and domestic large- and small-cap funds, we would own some high-yielding
real-estate investment trusts and utility shares.
The theory
behind this fund (insofar as a rockabilly cat like me needs a
pointy-headed intellectual's theory) is that it is widely diversified
and will catch the action pretty much wherever it is. It has some
slight lack of correlation, mostly because of the cash. It also
captures the small-cap and foreign stock groups that geniuses
like investment researchers Eugene Fama and Ken French talk about
so eloquently.
We'd change
the allocation little by little, as sectors become too expensive
or get cheap. Our approach takes advantage of the fact that over
long periods (very long periods, to be sure), indexes beat all
but the very best and rarest stockpickers.
Adding to
our potential to do well: The costs of holding these exchange-traded
funds and high-paying utility stocks and real-estate investment
trusts would be very low. Except for the tax on the income from
the utilities and REITs, it would be extremely tax-efficient (and
we'd probably offer a version without the high current income,
too).
My pal Phil
DeMuth (a real person, not my alter ego, as some readers have
theorized) has been running a fund like this for me for the past
three years or so. In that time, it has grown from a medium five
figures to well into seven figures. Now, to be fair, most of that
is from my adding new money to it. But not counting that new money,
the fund has grown by roughly 21% a year since I started it, while
the S&P 500 has risen at roughly 16% in the same period. (Don't
be jealous. I have lots of other accounts at other investment
houses that haven't done anywhere near as well.)
A FUND OF
ETFS, plus some income. That's my humble idea of a means to do
what Ray Lucia insists we do: match our assets with our liabilities.
Maybe I can talk Ray into doing it with me and we'll come up with
rock songs to advertise it. ("Investment Advisor Confidential"
will be our first tune.)
I'll almost
certainly never do it for anyone else but me, however; I'm not
a money guy. Unless maybe I can do it under another name. Like
Jerry Lee Stein.